WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS
The article deals with long-term trends in the world economy and international trade, new challenges for global development, including digitalization and servicification of the economy, trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions in the world. Also the medium-term prospects of world economic and commodity markets situation are analyzed, as well as specific economic developments in the largest countries and groupings – the USA, EU, China and India. The unprecedented scale of trade and economic confrontation between the United States and China has significantly increased uncertainty in the global market and provoked an explosive growth of trade protectionism, destabilized the foundations of the existing world economic order. Long-term structural shifts in international trade are associated with an increase in the share of services and expanding range of tradable services due to digitization, in the world energy market – with the US becoming one of the largest net exporters of energy and the formation of a highly competitive global gas market due to the explosive growth of LNG exports and the diversification of its suppliers. Almost all future scenarios are dominated by downside risks and strategic uncertainties, which increases the demand for multi-vector policy and diversification in foreign economic activity.
Over the past several years, the United States has taken a leading position in the world in attractiveness to foreign investors, largely due to the policy of favoring foreign investment and the absence of significant restrictions on incoming FDI. Currently the United States are trying to find a balance between openness to foreign investment and emerging issues related to the economy and national security. As a result of the adoption of the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act in 2018, the authority of the US Foreign Investments Committee was significantly expanded and the requirements for transactions were tightened, in particular, monitoring and verification of compliance with national security requirements. Despite the fact that these measures affected all incoming FDI in the United States, they are primarily an instrument of competition between the United States and China. Restrictions on outbound investment by China, as well as new requirements on the part of the United States, have significantly reduced the flow of FDI from China to the United States, especially in high-tech industries and infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, the US direct investment in China has remained stable over the past few years. In addition, there are some industry regulations on the share of foreign investors in the capital of energy companies, broadcasting companies, banks and others. Investment relations between the two countries, according to the investors, despite political and trade contradictions, remain quite close.
The increasing political and economic influence of China on the international economic relations, whilst remaining the relative closeness of its economy and reluctance to provide reciprocal access to the national market, is becoming an important topic for discussion among Western and Russian researchers. The purpose of the study is to analyze the modern scientific view on growing influence of the PRC worldwide as a new political player, as well as to identify contradictions arising in the world economy. The methodological basis consists of general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, generalization and comparison methods, historical and logical approaches to the examined phenomena, which allow to identify contradictions and problems that Russia could face due to China's global economic expansion. The authors substantiate the need for Russian to use the experience of other country in protecting its national interests throw creating mechanisms for foreign investments screening, as those investment can have negative impact on the recipient economy and its integration partners. The article provides recommendations for Russia on how to develop the mutually beneficial and effective investment cooperation with China.
Analysis of foreign and Russian experience in logistics solutions in the organization of parking space for personal transport in the world's megacities was carried out by a search study. The method of content analysis of information was used as the main method. Two main approaches to content analysis were applied: formalization, i. e. the presence of unambiguous rules to identify the desired characteristics of content and statistical significance, i. e. the elements of interest should meet with sufficient frequency for the study. Since 2007, the population of large cities has been steadily growing. Worldstats predicts that by 2030, the population of the 25 fastest growing urban agglomerations will increase by another 113 million people. The main challenge for the development of large cities is how to place the increasing population within the limited boundaries of megacities, including how to organize residential and public spaces, including parking spaces, in limited areas.
The Scandinavian countries are among of the most successful countries in terms of development, implementation and using information and communication technologies (ICT), which is confirmed by a number of global ratings in digitalization of national economies. This study aims to identify factors that allowed these countries to have held leading positions in three global indexes: the E-government Development Index, the Digital Evolution Index and the Global Connectivity Index. This study found that the main factor which lead to the success of the development of the ICT sector in the Scandinavian countries is the government programs and strategies in the field of digitalization the national economy, aimed at digitalizing of the government sector, supporting private companies in the construction of infrastructure and increasing penetration of innovative standards of mobile-cellular and fixed-broadband services. In conclusion, this study notes that the successful experience of the Scandinavian countries in the development and use of ICT can be used in the Russian economy and the others developed countries.
The article describes the impact of global value chains on the economic development of countries. Trade liberalization has made Mexico one of the leading countries in the world with a production economy and an attractive market for FDI. Nevertheless, Mexico has difficulties due to the uneven development of economic sectors, the low level of R & D expenditures, the lack of sufficient coordination in the preparation and application of skilled labor, and the level of remuneration. The key aspects of Mexico’s current export orientation and its strong link to regional international supply chains are industrial development and job creation programs on the northern border of the country, the so-called maquiladoras industry. The close integration of the dynamically developing sectors of the Mexican economy into the global value chains of North America made it difficult to increase domestic exports. Mexican companies integrated into these chains, as a rule, are highly dependent on imported resources, which limits their contribution to the development of a dynamic and properly structured domestic industry. The article analyzes the main economic indicators of Mexico, which determine the country's involvement in global value chains, and identify the strengths and weaknesses of the country to further expand its international trading activities.
ЕВРАЗИЙСКАЯ ИНТЕГРАЦИЯ
Despite rising protectionist trends, the number of free trade agreements (FTAs) continues to grow worldwide. The countries of the Eurasian economic Union (EAEU) also do not remain aloof from these processes. Feasibility studies of signing such agreements with various partner countries are underway in the Eurasian Economic Commission. This article discusses the likely effects of the FTA with Japan. A review of the structure and trends of mutual trade is done. The analysis reveals the statistical and logical relationship between the dynamics of trade in goods between Russia and Japan and oil prices, as well as the impact of such factors as the devaluation of the Russian ruble, the increase in duties on the import of used cars, WTO accession and sanctions. The article assesses the possible quantitative effects of liberalization of trade in goods between the EAEU countries (primarily Russia) and Japan. We use the partial equilibrium model SMART (from the WITS toolkit) and calculations for the budget loss of zeroing of import duties. The structural asymmetry of mutual trade and the likely effects of its liberalization on business and budgets of the participating countries is shown. The probable impact of the FTA on the automotive sector in the Russian Federation are considered separately.
The article is devoted to the analysis of domestic and foreign trade of the Eurasian economic Union (EAEU) of agri-food products; identification and assessment of current trends, growth factors and imbalances in the light of efforts to create a unified agricultural policy of the member States of the Union. It is determined that Russia's successful implementation of the priority project «Export of agricultural products» contributed to the increase in grain exports to third countries in spite of the limited effective demand within the EAEU. The largest contribution to exports within the five countries, especially in terms of livestock products, makes Belarus with a significant negative balance of its trade in agricultural products with countries outside the Union. The free trade agreement with Vietnam stimulates export from Russia with mainly wheat, which strengthens its position as a source of agricultural raw materials without shifting the focus to products of deep processing. The relevance of the article is due to the fact that agriculture is officially recognized as a strategic industry, and food security is an integral part of the national security of the country. It is of interest to study the formation of a single agricultural market within the EAEU and the realities of foreign trade with third countries.
In May 2018, the Eurasian economic union (EAEU) and China signed a non-preferential agreement on trade and economic cooperation. The agreement provides for joint projects in many economics sectors. For China, this agreement is a new step in the implementation of the large – scale project «One belt-one road», as well as an attempt to approach the creation of a free trade zone in the SCO countries. For the EAEU, the trade agreement with China is an attempt to establish its own game rules in the process of pairing the EAEU and the Silk road economic belt. Attracting investment from China will allow the EAEU countries to develop large transport and energy projects, because China is still one of the world leaders in energy consumption. However it is important to bear in mind that China faces two important energy challenges: on the one hand, the necessity of transition from coal to natural gas, and, on the other hand, the necessity of transition from fossil to renewable energy sources. The analysis of the current agreements shows China's interest in the EAEU countries only from a logistical point of view, which means the need for the EAEU countries to create a unique proposal for the supply of energy resources to China.
The article deals with the economic and political contradictions of the Caspian region. The first and most significant step towards building mutually beneficial cooperation between the five countries located on the Caspian sea coast was the signing of the Convention on the legal status of the Caspian sea of 12 August 2018 (the Convention), which defined the common interests of the countries in economic and security issues. This is only the beginning of a successful regional cooperation. Nevertheless, favorable conditions have already been created for the deepening of mutually beneficial economic cooperation and the development of new transit and transport infrastructure. Despite certain aspects of competition in the international hydrocarbon market, the countries of the Caspian region can form a joint production infrastructure based on joint concession megaprojects in order to ensure the export of petroleum products with a high share of added value. This aspect, as well as common interests in the field of security and preservation of the Caspian sea ecosystem, can become the Foundation for the creation of a new regional Association of countries. The article reveals the main issues that can be resolved through the implementation of joint mutually beneficial regional projects. In economic terms, the main obstacle is the competition of the countries of the region in the Chinese hydrocarbon market. Taking into account the capacity and potential of this market, the transition from the positions of competitors to the positions of joint supplies could be ensured by the creation of a single processing production interstate cluster.
FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The article analyzes the current state of trade and economic relations between Russia and the Maghreb. The author considers the objectives of this cooperation, its potential and dynamics, as well as models of its implementation. The author comes to the conclusion that the potential of trade and economic cooperation is far from exhausted. Trade relations between the two countries developed ambiguously in the formation of the tendency to increase trade turnover. Investments remain insignificant, however, in the presence of a number of joint projects. Trade is unbalanced, both by country and by export-import flows, by year. Among the reasons, the author highlights the lack of timely and reliable information about the state of the partner countries ' markets, their legislative framework, mentality and peculiarities of business culture, as well as the preservation of models of interaction that do not correspond to modern realities, including the lack of understanding of the importance of the region in Russia. The author substantiates the point of view that the parties have both the opportunity and the need to further develop the potential of trade and economic cooperation to strengthen the Russian presence in the region, represented by both public and private structures in a number of areas, among which a special place is occupied by energy, engineering, chemistry and petrochemistry. In addition, it is important to intensify the development of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Maghreb countries in the social sphere, primarily in the areas of health and education, as well as in the cultural sphere.
The departure of large foreign car manufacturers from the Russian market negatively affects all partners and interested parties car dealers, suppliers, employees, buyers and fans of brands of departed companies. This departure became even more painful for Ford itself, which leaves the domestic market with a loss of $ 500 million, which is 14% of the total annual profit of Ford Motor Co. in 2018 This sad event was caused by a number of circumstances: the consequences of the global financial crisis, the devaluation of the national currency, the decline in sales in the Russian car market, company errors in pricing, marketing policies and updating the model range, in assessing the prospects for marketing products and creating excess production capacities, as well as refusal to independently manage Russian business and the choice for this Russian partner in a joint venture. A close study of the reasons that forced the recent leader of the Russian car market to Ford to close its car factories and stop selling them in Russia is presented in the article. Particular attention is paid to the development of the domestic car market, the development of effective competition strategies in the face of falling household incomes and rising product prices, state support for the domestic auto industry, as well as the specifics of creating joint ventures in the Russian Federation and assessing the resource capabilities of joint venture partners.
In the context of a slowdown in global growth rates and under unfavorable foreign policy conditions, special attention should be paid to protective measures to stabilize the growth of the country's GDP. It was noted that not only the measures applied by the Central Bank, but also the level of communication with financial market participants have a significant impact on the formation of long-term expectations. It is shown that these factors significantly affect international capital flows and, as a result, the Russian economy. The conclusion is made about the need to stimulate domestic sources of economic growth in the context of international economic turbulence, the need to introduce a comprehensive package of measures using elements of both fiscal and monetary policies. The methodological basis of this study is the principles of a systematic comparative analysis of the interaction of market forces. The novelty consists in a comprehensive assessment of the state of sources of growth of the Russian economy in 2017-2018. in conditions of instability in the financial and economic sphere, and in identifying non-obvious factors that have a significant impact on economic growth rates. The main provisions, practical conclusions can be used to develop and implement monetary policy in the face of negative expectations from investors with the subsequent tightening of US monetary policy.
ISSN 2414-4649 (Online)