Problems of Coupling the EAEU and the Organization of Turkic States in Modern Conditions

Historically, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) prioritized political, cultural and humanitarian fields of multilateral cooperation. However, authors demonstrate that OTS has now taken a course to expand economic cooperation within the association and is taking consistent regulatory and institutional steps to do so. The main reason for the introduction of the economic agenda is the understanding of the insufficiency of political and humanitarian projects based on Turkic identity, culture and language to expand its influence in the region. At the same time, such development inevitably intersects with Eurasian integration and creates risks for Russia. The authors highlight that the size of the economies of the OTS countries is inferior to the economic power of the EAEU countries, however, the Turkic states illustrate a more dynamic growth than the EAEU and the world as a whole. Trade and FDI flows between the EAEU and OTS take place mainly in the bilateral format between Turkey and Russia for limited commodity nomenclatures (oil and metals) and investment projects (logistics). Despite the active humanitarian and cultural work of the OTS, the trade and investment connectivity of the countries does not yet reflect the implementation of the relevant initiatives laid down in the "Vision of the Turkic World-2040". The analysis demonstrates that for members of two organizations (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which has observer status in the EAEU) Russia and the EAEU have a large economic role, but the Central Asian states support further integration within the OTS as part of their multilateral foreign policy. The role of Russia and the EAEU in the scenario of deepening integration within the OTS increases significantly, since it is the Russian Federation that is considered as a key player capable of balancing Turkey's regional influence by external actors. Based on this, the article suggests scenarios for further interaction between the EAEU and the OTG, which will allow to mitigate the long-term risks of Turkey's growing influence without switching to open confrontation and move away from the current tactics of ignoring the association. In particular, the authors consider the prospects for cooperation in the fields of «green economy», logistics, energy, science and education.

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