Global arms exports : the formation of a new paradigm
https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2024-2-16-32
Abstract
The modern world market for arms and military equipment (WME) is experiencing a whole range of structural and dynamic changes caused by numerous global problems in the development of the world economy, the nature of competition in this market, as well as the formation of a multipolar world order. The purpose of the study was to assess possible changes in the long-term program of research on international trade in arms and military equipment, taking into account the specified triggers. As the research has shown, the political economy of global arms and military equipment exports is undergoing a significant transformation when, with the emergence of new players in the global arms and military equipment market, its qualitative characteristics and development parameters change, unconventionally affecting global demand and supply for weapons. In turn, the dynamics of defense spending have an ambiguous impact on the market under study, which can both crowd out investments in other sectors and affect the economic growth of the country and its position in global arms and military equipment exports. Finally, the global arms and military equipment market is witnessing serious and previously unknown changes in the global architecture of multilateral regulation, which determine the formation of global value chains within the framework of military-political blocs. These transformations lead to a new understanding of international cooperation between countries exporting and importing weapons and military equipment and form a new set of research problems.
About the Author
D. A. RepnikovRussian Federation
Dmitry A. Repnikov, PhD, Deputy Director of the Innovative Technological Centre, Associate Professor of the Department N 3 of Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces of the Military Education Centre
5 bld. 1, 2nd Baumanskaya Strееt, Moscow, 105005
References
1. Amerslanova A. N., Pashnin I. V. Mirovaya praktika primeneniya mer gosudarstvennoy podderzhki organizatsiy oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa [The World Practice of Applying State Support Measures for Organizations of the Military-Industrial Complex]. Uchet. Analiz. Audit [Accounting. Analysis], 2024, Vol. 10, No. 5, pp. 50–60. (In Russ.).
2. Baydarov D. Yu., Faykov D. Yu. Diversifikatsiya deyatelnosti predpriyatiy oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa: sistemnost, strategiya, praktika [Diversification of the Activities of Enterprises of the Military- Industrial Complex: Consistency, Strategy, Practice]. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost [Economic security], 2024, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 191–214. (In Russ.).
3. Poplavskiy S. P. Globalnaya nestabilnost mirovoy ekonomiki: sushchnost, prichiny, faktory sostavlyayushchie, perspektivy [Global Instability of the World Economy: Essence, Causes, Constituent Factors, Prospects]. Rossiya i Aziya [Russia and Asia], 2024, No. 1 (27), pp. 81–92. (In Russ.).
4. Repnikov D. A. Prioritety SShA v sisteme regulirovaniya mezhdunarodnoy torgovli vooruzheniyami [Priorities of the United States in the System of Regulation of International Arms Trade]. Rossiyskiy vneshneekonomicheskiy vestnik [Russian Foreign Economic Bulletin], 2023, No. 8, pp. 33–46. (In Russ.).
5. Repnikov D. A. Formirovanie mnogostoronnego mekhanizma regulirovaniya eksporta vooruzheniy v ramkakh Dogovora o torgovle oruzhiem [Formation of a Multilateral Mechanism for Regulating the Export of Weapons Within the Framework of the Arms Trade Treaty]. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya [Economic relations], 2023, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 669–686. (In Russ.).
6. Smirnov E. N. Eskalatsiya antirossiyskikh sanktsiy i ee posledstviya dlya globalnoy ekonomiki [Escalation of Anti-Russian Sanctions and Its Consequences for the Global Economy]. Rossiyskiy vneshneekonomicheskiy vestnik [Russian Foreign Economic Bulletin], 2023, No. 2, pp. 80–93. (In Russ.).
7. Akerman A., Seim A. The Global Arms Trade Network 1950–2007. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2014, Vol. 42 (3), pp. 535–551.
8. Aubin Y., Idiart A. Export Control Law and Regulations Handbook: a Practical Guide to Military and Dual-Use Goods Trade Restrictions and Compliance. Kluwer Law International, 2016.
9. Beeres R., Bertrand R., Klomp J., Timmermans J., Voetelink J. NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2021. Compliance and Integrity in International Military Trade. Faculty of Military Sciences, Netherlands Defence Academy. Springer, 2021.
10. Bove V., Deiana C., Nisticò R. Global Arms Trade and Oil Dependence. CSEF Working Paper, No. 452. Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), Department of Economics, University of Naples, 2016.
11. Brauer J. Chapter 30. Arms Industries, Arms Trade, and Developing Countries. Handbook of Defense Economics, 2007, Vol. 2, pp. 973–1015.
12. Capaccio T., Ellis S., Flatley D. Biden Administration Preps $1.1 Billion Arms Sale to Taiwan. 2022, August 30. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/biden-administration-readies-1-1-billion-ams-sale-to-taiwan (accessed 22.03.2024).
13. Comola M. Democracies, Politics, and Arms Supply. Review of International Economics, 2012, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 150–163.
14. Dunne J. P., Smith R. P., Willenbockel D. Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: a Critical Review. Defence and Peace Economics, 2005, Vol. 16 (6), pp. 449–461.
15. Dunne J. P., Tian N. Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity. Defence and Peace Economics, 2013, Vol. 26 (1), pp. 15–31.
16. Erickson J. L. Stopping the legal flow of weapons: Compliance with arms embargoes, 1981–2004. Journal of Peace Research, 2013, Vol. 50, pp. 159–174.
17. Garcia-Alonso M., Levine P. Chapter 29. Arms trade and arms races: a strategic analysis. Handbook of Defense Economics, 2007, Vol. 2, pp. 941–971.
18. Hartley K. The Economics of Arms. Agenda Publishing, 2017.
19. Hendrix C. Russia’s Boom Business Goes Bust. 2023, May 3. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/03/russia-arms-sales-weapons-exports-worldwide-ukraine-war/ (accessed 18.01.2024).
20. Jamo A., Martinez C., Nash L., Haidar N. The Global Arms Trade Policy Analysis. The Organization for World Peace, 2023.
21. Kollias C., Sirakoulis K. Arms Racing and the Costs of Arms Imports: A Stochastic Model. Defence and Peace Economics, 2002, Vol. 13 (2), pp. 137–143.
22. Levine P., Smith R. The Arms Trade Game: from Laissex-Faire to a Common Defence Policy. Oxford Economic Papers, 2000, Vol. 52 (2), pp. 357–380.
23. Malmlöf T. Russia’s Arms Exports: Successes and Challenges. Dans Revue Défense Nationale, 2017, Vol. 7 (802), pp. 64–71.
24. Meet the World’s New Arms Dealers. 2023, September 19. Available at: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/09/19/meet-the-worlds-new-arms-dealers (accessed 16.03.2024).
25. Moore M. Arming the Embargoed: A Supply-Side Understanding of arms embargo violations. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2010, Vol. 54, pp. 593–615.
26. Pierre A. J. The Global Politics of Arms Sales. Princeton University Press, 2014.
27. Russia Still Up in Arms Despite Ukraine War. 2023, December 11. Available at: https://www.timesaerospace.aero/features/defence/russia-still-up-in-arms-despite-ukraine-war (accessed 04.02.2024).
28. Seitz M., Tarasov A., Zakharenko R. Trade Costs, Conflicts, and Defense Spending. Journal of International Economics, 2015, Vol. 95 (2), pp. 305– 318.
29. Smith R., Tasiran A. Random Coefficients Models of Arms Imports. Economic Modelling, 2010, Vol. 27 (6), pp. 1522–1528.
30. Söderberg A. How Arms Trade and Military Expenditures Affect Economic Growth. Master thesis, Master’s Program in Economics, Spring Term. UNEA University, 2023.
31. Tolentino T. A. M. The Political Economy of US Arms Sales in the Past Half-Century. Fulfilment of the Requirements of Political Economy Course. De La Salle University – Dasmariñas, January 2023.
32. Trebilcock M. J., Trachtman J. Advanced Introduction to International Trade Law. 2nd Edition. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2020.
33. Yaffa J. Arming Ukraine. New Yorker, 2022, Vol. 98 (34), pp. 50–61.
34. Yakovlev P. Arms Trade, Military Spending, and Economic Growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 2007, Vol. 18 (4), pp. 317–338.
Review
For citations:
Repnikov D.A. Global arms exports : the formation of a new paradigm. International Trade and Trade Policy. 2024;10(2):16-32. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2024-2-16-32