RATINGS AND PROJECTIONS OF U.S . ECONOMIC RECOVERY
https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2021-1-27-35
Abstract
The forecasts of the economic development for the next years vary among countries and projections depend greatly on how long the pandemic and social distancing will take place and on the measures that are taken place for increasing social and economic activities, commerce. Meanwhile ratings of US leadership are declining, with the worst results in Europe. The rapid spread of the virus that causes COVID-19 made US leading country in confirmed cases and created a new reality for the national economy. As to the US the fall of real gross domestic product in 2020 is expected around the average of OECD countries, more than in Japan; less than in in Great Britain, Italy, France. Unemployment rate is projected going down in 2021 (comparing with 2020) but remaining still high. Experts are examining possible outcomes of coronavirus spreading and its consequences for the dynamics of GDP, unemployment, international trade and world investment. The projections seem not very bright for the next year; and it will take time for returning to pre pandemic indicators. While forecasts of declining international trade show the fall in world merchandise exports would be large, the estimates show beginning growth in exports next year.
Supporting agencies: The reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 20-014-00001 «А Global and Regional E ects of US Economic Policy in the second – the beginning of the third decade of the XXI century: New Challenges and Chances for Russia»
About the Author
E. V. Emelianov
Institute for USA and Canada Studies Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Evgeny V. Emelianov - PhD, Senior Researcher
2/3, Khlebny per., Moscow, 123995
References
1. Bogaturov A. D. Globalnye aspekty «tsivilizatsionnogo» vliyaniya SSHA v XXI veke [Global Aspects of US «Civilization» Influence in XXI Century]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2007, No. 9, pp. 114–121 (In Russ.).
2. SSHA: vozmozhnosti i predely ekonomicheskogo i politicheskogo liderstva [USA: Opportunities and Limits of Economic and Political Leadership], edited by E. V. Kirichenko. Moscow, IMEMO RAN named after E. M. Primakov, 2016, Vol. 1.
3. Allies Despair as Trump Abandons America's Leadership Role at a Time of Global Crisis, CNN, 2020, May 9. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/09/politics/us-leadership-coronavirus-intl/index.html
4. Americans' Vanishing Fear of Foreign Trade, 2020, February 26. Available at: https://news.gallup.com/poll/286730/americans-vanishingfear-foreign-trade.aspx
5. For economy to Recover, Public-Health Responses Will Be Critical. The Wall Street Journal, 2020, April 1. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-s-rosengren-says-nobody-should-be-left-behind-in-stimulusefforts-11585764001
6. OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020. 2020, June 10. Available at:http://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/statistical-annex/
7. Rating World Leaders: 2020. Report, Gallup, 2020. Available at: https://www.gallup.com/analytics/315824/gallup-global-leadershipcenter.aspx
8. President Donald J. Trump is Beginning the Next Phase In Our Fight Against Coronavirus: Guidelines for Opening Up America Again, 2020, April 16. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-beginning-next-phase-fight-coronavirus-guidelinesopening-america/
9. The World Investment Report United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2020.
10. U.S. Leadership Remains Unpopular Worldwide. Gallup, 2020, July 27. Available at: https://news.gallup.com/poll/316133/leadership-remainsunpopular
Review
For citations:
Emelianov E.V. RATINGS AND PROJECTIONS OF U.S . ECONOMIC RECOVERY. International Trade and Trade Policy. 2021;7(1):27-35. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2021-1-27-35
Views:
423
Email this article 
