Preview

International Trade and Trade Policy

Advanced search

Analysis of the Key Factors of Growth of the Russian Economy in the Context of Negative External Economic Conditions

https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2019-4-181-194

Abstract

In the context of a slowdown in global growth rates and under unfavorable foreign policy conditions, special attention should be paid to protective measures to stabilize the growth of the country's GDP. It was noted that not only the measures applied by the Central Bank, but also the level of communication with financial market participants have a significant impact on the formation of long-term expectations. It is shown that these factors significantly affect international capital flows and, as a result, the Russian economy. The conclusion is made about the need to stimulate domestic sources of economic growth in the context of international economic turbulence, the need to introduce a comprehensive package of measures using elements of both fiscal and monetary policies. The methodological basis of this study is the principles of a systematic comparative analysis of the interaction of market forces. The novelty consists in a comprehensive assessment of the state of sources of growth of the Russian economy in 2017-2018. in conditions of instability in the financial and economic sphere, and in identifying non-obvious factors that have a significant impact on economic growth rates. The main provisions, practical conclusions can be used to develop and implement monetary policy in the face of negative expectations from investors with the subsequent tightening of US monetary policy.

About the Author

Evgeny A. Vasyukov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation

Post Graduate Student of the Faculty of Economics

1, bld. 1, 716, Leninskie gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation.



References

1. Bank Rossii prinyal reshenie snizit klyuchevuyu stavku na 25 b. p., do 7,50% godovyh. Tsentralnyy bank Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Bank Rossii) [The Bank of Russia Decided to Reduce the Key Rate on 25 b. p., up to 7,50% per annum. Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia). Press Release], 2018, September, p. 1. (In Russ.).

2. Bank Rossii prinyal reshenie sohranit klyuchevuyu stavku na urovne 7,25% godovyh. Tsentralnyy bank Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Bank Rossii) [The Bank of Russia Decided to Keep the Key Rate at 7,25% per annum. Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia]. Press-reliz, 2018, June, p. 1. (In Russ.).

3. Zubkov I. Rynok strogih pravil. Bank Rossii vvedet limity na kredity i zaymy lyudyam s bolshimi dolgami [Market Strict Rules. The Bank of Russia will Introduce Limits on Loans to People with Large Debts], Rossiyskaya gazeta – Federalnyy vypusk, 2019, No. 135 (7893). (In Russ.).

4. Miheeva A., Peremitin G. Vzvesili riski: k chemu privedet uzhestochenie norm TSB dlya potrebkreditov [Weighed the risks: what will the tightening of the Central Bank for consumer loans]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.rbc.ru/finances/10/07/2018/5b44bd099a7947f75ec520a5 (acessed 12.09.2019).

5. O dinamike razvitiya bankovskogo sektora Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Tsentralnyy bank Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Bank Rossii) [On the Dynamics of the Banking Sector of the Russian Federation. Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)], 2018, August, p. 5.

6. Tretyak A. Minfin razmestil chut bolshe poloviny OFZ [The Ministry of Finance Placed a Little More than Half OFZ.]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/articles/2018/11/07/785800-minfin-razmestil (accessed 18.09.2019).

7. Amadeo K. Fed Funds Rate History with Its Highs, Lows and Chart, 2019, October 31. Available at: https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135 (дата обращения: 18.09.2019)

8. Aris B. The Russian Economy is stagnating, 2019, May. Available at: https://www.intellinews.com/the-russian-economy-is-stagnating-161802/?source=bne-credit

9. Audran J., Bolliger M. Investing and Football. Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research, 2018, May, p. 27.

10. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, 2018 July 31, August 1, P. 5. Available at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm

11. Bowman D. U. S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, Vol. 55, p. 27–59.

12. Challenges to Steady Growth, World Economic Outlook. IMF publications, 2018, October.

13. Euromonitor international. Retailing in Russia, Euromonitor International Country Report, 2018, February, p. 12.

14. Global Economic Prospects: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment. World Bank group, 2019, June, p. 4

15. Juntao L. Oil Price Trend under the FED Interest Rate Rising Cycle. International Petroleum Economics, 2017, Vol. 25, p. 60.

16. Kluge J. Mounting Pressure on Russia’s Government Budget Financial and Political Risks of Stagnation, SWP Research Paper, 2019, February 2, p. 29

17. Lautier M., Moreaub F. Domestic Investment and FDI in Developing Countries: the Missing Link, Journal of Economic Development, 2012, Vol. 37, No. 3. – P. 24.

18. Ming L. Research on the Influence of the Fed Rate Rise on Russian Economy, 2018. 3rd International Conference on Society Science and Economics Development, ICSSED, 2018, p. 290.

19. Modest Growth; Focus on Informality, Russia Economic Report, 2019, No. 41, June, p. 5

20. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Developments in Individual OECD and Selected Non-Member Economies, OECD Economic Outlook, 2018, Vol. 2018, Issue 2, p. 178.

21. Russia’s Economy: Preserving Stability, Doubling Growth, Halving Poverty – How? Russia Economic Report, 2018, No. 40, November, p. 8

22. Shuhao L., Ma Li. The Economic Predicament of Russia and Its Enlightenment to China – An Empirical Test Based on the Price of Crude Oil and the Fluctuation of the Value of the Ruble, Studies of International Finance, 2016, Vol. 12, p. 33–42.

23. Weiguo X., Xiaomei L. An Empirical Analysis on the Spillover Effect of the New Round of the Fed Rate Rise on China's Cross-Border Capital Flows, Economist, 2017, Vol. 25.


Review

For citations:


Vasyukov E.A. Analysis of the Key Factors of Growth of the Russian Economy in the Context of Negative External Economic Conditions. International Trade and Trade Policy. 2019;(4):181-194. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2019-4-181-194

Views: 496


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2410-7395 (Print)
ISSN 2414-4649 (Online)