Medium- and Long-Term Trends in the Development of the World Economy
https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2019-4-5-30
Abstract
The article deals with long-term trends in the world economy and international trade, new challenges for global development, including digitalization and servicification of the economy, trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions in the world. Also the medium-term prospects of world economic and commodity markets situation are analyzed, as well as specific economic developments in the largest countries and groupings – the USA, EU, China and India. The unprecedented scale of trade and economic confrontation between the United States and China has significantly increased uncertainty in the global market and provoked an explosive growth of trade protectionism, destabilized the foundations of the existing world economic order. Long-term structural shifts in international trade are associated with an increase in the share of services and expanding range of tradable services due to digitization, in the world energy market – with the US becoming one of the largest net exporters of energy and the formation of a highly competitive global gas market due to the explosive growth of LNG exports and the diversification of its suppliers. Almost all future scenarios are dominated by downside risks and strategic uncertainties, which increases the demand for multi-vector policy and diversification in foreign economic activity.
About the Authors
Andrey N. Spartak
All-Russian Market Research Institute; Russian Academy of Foreign Trade
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Science, Holds Doctor of Science Degree in Economics (Scientific Speciality «World Economy»), Professor, Director of the All-Russian Market Research Institute, Head of Chair in the Russian Foreign Trade Academy.
4. Pudovkin str., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation.
Tatiana A. Voronova
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Professor of the Department of International Business and Customs of the PRUE.
36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.
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Review
For citations:
Spartak A.N., Voronova T.A. Medium- and Long-Term Trends in the Development of the World Economy. International Trade and Trade Policy. 2019;(4):5-30. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2019-4-5-30
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