Preview

International Trade and Trade Policy

Advanced search

Assessment of Involvement of Countries of Greater Eurasian Partnership into Foreign Trade Interaction

https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2026-2-58-77

Abstract

Transformation of global economic relations presupposes reconsideration of approaches to assessment of foreign economic interaction of countries towards more flexible and soft formats, as, for example, partnership, including the Greater Eurasian partnership (GEP) initiated 2015 by the Russian President V. V. Putin. The goal of study is to conduct complex analysis of involvement of GEP countries into international trade and investment processes with use of econometric instruments in order to strengthen the interaction within GEP. The study is based on panel and paired data on 18 GEP countries for 2000–2024, presented in databases of international organizations (UNCTAD, World Bank, IMF, WTO, WIPO, UN Comtrade). The tools of a multilevel econometric model, including a gravity trading model, were used as the methodological basis of the study. An expanded gravity model of trade has been applied, taking into account economic size, distance, and institutional factors, and a multilevel econometric model analyzing the impact of trade, FDI, and technological readiness on the balance of payments for the period 2000–2024. The authors conclude that GEP has an integration potential, but it has a number of logistical and institutional barriers. Econometric calculations have confirmed that export concentration and import diversification are associated with increased integration, while logistical difficulties and limited trade agreements are associated with a slowdown. The development of GEP is facilitated by the activation of regional agreements.

About the Authors

E. L. Andreeva
Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Elena L. Andreeva - Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of Center of Regional Comparative Research, Leading Research Fellow

29 Moscovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, 620214



P. V. Ilyasov
Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Petr V. Ilyasov - PhD, Senior Research Associate of Centre of Regional Comparative Studies,

29 Moscovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, 620214



References

1. Abramov V. L., Vasilchenko A. D. Regionalnye zepochki stoimosti kak mehanizm ukrepleniya torgovoy integrazii v EAJES [Regional Value Chains as a Driver of Trade Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2025, No. 2, pp. 144–166. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.52180/2073-6487_2025_2_144_166

2. Akaev A. A., Kefeli I. F. Proekty i realii formirovaniya Bolshogo evraziyskogo prostranstva [Projects and Realities of Forming a Great Eurasian Space]. Evraziyskaya integratsiya: ekonomika, pravo, politika [Eurasian Integration: Economics, Law, Politics], 2024, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 10–25. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.22394/2073-2929-2024-02-10-25

3. Aronov I. Z., Rybakova A. M., Ivanov A. V. Modifikaziya gravitazionnoy modeli vneshney torgovli s uchyotom infrastruktury kachestva ekonomik [Modification of Foreign Trade Gravity Model Considering the Quality Infrastructure]. Rossiyskiy vneshneekonomicheskiy vestnik [Russian Foreign Economic Journal], 2024, No. 10, pp. 7–24. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-10-7-24

4. Babaev K. V. Ideya “Bolshoy Evrazii” i povorot rossiyskoу ekonomiki na Vostok [The Idea of Greater Eurasia and the Russian Economy's Turn to the East]. Ekonomika Tsentralnoу Azii [Journal of Central Asia Economy], 2024, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 91–110. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18334/asia.8.2.121012

5. Vardomskiy L. Voprosy sopryazheniya iniziativy Kitaya “Poyas i put” i proekta Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza [Issues Related to the Integration of China's Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union project]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika [Society and Economics], 2024, No. 7–8, pp. 112–126. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31857/S0207367624070088

6. Davydenko E., Egorova M., Skhvediani A., Yablonskaya K., Mokhov E. Gravitazionnaya model: ekonometricheskiy analiz dinamiki vneshney torgovli Rossii i Belarusi so stranami BRIKS [Gravity Model: an Econometric Analysis of the Foreign Trade Dynamics between Russia and Belarus with the BRICS Countries]. Sustainable Development and Engineering Economics, 2025, No. 1, pp. 27–40. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.48554/SDEE.2025.1.2

7. Dankov A. G., Savkovich E. V. Transformaziya transportnogo karkasa Evrazii v nachale XXI veka [Transformation of the Transport Framework of Eurasia in the Beginning of the 21st Century]. Mezhdunarodnaya analitika [International Analytics], 2025, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 198–210. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2025-16-1-198-210

8. Zhilkin O. N., Balashova S. A., Abramova A. A. Gravitazionnaya model: analiz vzaimnoy torgovli stran Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza [Gravitational Model: Analysis of Mutual Trade of the Eurasian Economic Union Countries]. Vestnik Universiteta [Bulletin of University], 2023, No. 11, pp. 179–187. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.26425/1816-4277-2023-11-179-187

9. Zhiltsov S. S. Bolshoe evraziyskoe partnerstvo: itogi, problemy i perspektivy [The Greater Eurasian Partnership: Results, Problems and Prospects]. Postsovetskie issledovaniya [Post-Soviet Studies], 2025, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp. 425–435. (In Russ.).

10. Martynova E. S. Mezhdunarodnye transportnye koridory kak faktor formirovaniya Bolshogo Evraziyskogo partnerstva [International Transport Corridors as Factor of Forming the Big Eurasian Partnership]. Rossiya i novye gosudarstva Evrazii [Russia and New States of Eurasia], 2023, No. 3, pp. 68–77. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.20542/2073-4786-2023-3-68-77

11. Misko O. N., Darwish A. Sh. Rossiysko-egipetskoe sotrudnichestvo v kontekste perspektiv Bol’shogo evraziyskogo partnerstva [Russian-EgyptianCooperation in the Context of the Prospects for the Great Eurasian Partnership]. Evraziyskaya integratsiya: ekonomika, pravo, politika [Eurasian Integration: Economics, Law, Politics], 2023, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 46–57. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.22394/2073-2929-2023-02-46-57

12. Oskina O. I. Novye napravleniya evraziyskogo partnerstva: strukturnye izmeneniya i faktory vliyaniya [New Directions of the Eurasian Partnerships: Structural Changes and Factors of Influence]. Sovremennaya nauka i innovatsii [Modern Science and Innovations], 2024, No. 1, pp. 171–177. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.37493/2307-910X.2024.1.19

13. Pyzhikov N. S., Aliyev T. M., Zhivalov V. N. Bolshoe Evraziyskoe partnerstvo i perspektivy razvitiya EAES [Great Eurasian Partnership and the Prospects of Development of the EAEU]. Rossiya i novye gosudarstva Evrazii [Russia and New States of Eurasia], 2024, No. 4, pp. 200–222. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.20542/2073-4786-2024-4-200-222

14. Pyzhikov N. S., Kuzmichev K. S., Zhivalov V. N. Torgovoekonomicheskoe sotrudnichestvo Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza s potenzialnymi stranami-partnerami po Bolshomu Evraziyskomu partnerstvu [EAEU Trade and Economic Cooperation with Potential Partner Countries of the Greater Eurasian Partnership]. Rossiyskiy vneshneekonomicheskiy vestnik [Russian Foreign Economic Journal], 2025, No. 7, pp. 8–44. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2025-7-28-44

15. Sapir E. V., Karachev I. A. Perspektivy rasshireniya integrazionnogo sotrudnichestva Rossii i Kitaya na baze spezialnyh ekonomicheskikh zon [Expanding Russia-China Economic Integration Cooperation through Special Economic Zones]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Regions], 2025, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 655–671. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-3-6

16. Smirnov I. S. Gravitazionnye modeli dlya analiza mezhdunarodnoy torgovli: testirovanie teorii podobiya stran 50 let spustya [Gravity Models in International Trade Analysis: Testing the Country Similarity Theory 50 Years]. Regionalnye issledovaniya [Regional Research], 2020, No. 2, pp. 52–62. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.5922/1994-5280-2020-2-4

17. Shkvarya L. V. Vneshnyaya torgovlya Rossii so stranami SSAGPZ: dinamika, kharakteristiki i vozmozhnosti [Russia’s Foreign Trade with the GCC Countries: Dynamics, Characteristics and Opportunities]. Vestnik MGIMOUniversiteta [MGIMO Review of International Relations], 2023, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 222–243. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2023-3-90-222-243

18. Shkurko E., Lyubetskiy V. Analiz urovnya ekonomicheskoy integrazii i intensivnosti tovaropotokov v EAES [Analysis of the Level of Economic Integration and the Intensity of Commodity Flows in the EAEU]. Moskovskiy ekonomicheskiu zhurnal [Moscow Economic Journal], 2025, Vol. 10, No. 5, pp. 303–321. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_5_138

19. Shumilov A. Ozenivanie gravitazionnykh modeley mezhdunarodnoy torgovli: obzor osnovnykh podkhodov [Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade: a Survey of Methods]. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VSHE [HSE Economic Journal], 2017, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 224–250. (In Russ.).

20. Amin R. M., Hamid Z., Saad N. M. Economic Integration Among ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Gravity Model. East Asian Development Network (EADN), 2009, Working Paper 40. Available at: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/300398136.pdf

21. Anderson J. E. A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 1979, Vol. 69, No. 1, pp. 106–116. Available at: https://www.fpeckert.me/teaching/readings/AndersonAER79.pdf

22. Baldwin R., Taglioni D. Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations. NBER Working Paper, 2006, No. 12516. Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w12516. DOI 10.3386/w12516

23. Bergstrand J. H. The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1985, Vol. 67, No. 3, pp. 474–481. Available at: https://sites.nd.edu/jeffrey-bergstrand/files/2020/04/The-Gravity-Equation-inInternational-Trade.pdf

24. Damiyano D., Matindike S., Mago S., Dorasamy N. Intra-trade Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility among BRICS Member Countries: A Gravity Model Approach. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2023, Vol. 10, No. 142, pp. 3–12. DOI: 10.18551/rjoas.2023-10.01

25. Deardorff A. V. Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? In: The Regionalization of the World Economy. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1995. P. 7–32. Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w5377

26. Feenstra R. C. Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004. Available at: https://www.academia.edu/54057710/Advanced_International_Trade_Theory_and_Evidence_by_Robert_C_Feenstra

27. Head K., Mayer T. Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook. Handbook of International Economics, 2014, No. 4, pp. 131–195. Available at: https://cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-27.pdf

28. Johnson H. G. International Trade and Economic Growth. London: Allen & Unwin, 1958. Avaylable at: https://archive.org/details/internationaltra0000john_v7n1/mode/2up

29. Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1995. Available at: https://archive.org/details/foundationsofint0000obst

30. Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause? NBER Working Paper, 2001No. 7777. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=235703

31. Santos Silva J. M. C., Tenreyro S. The Log of Gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2006, Vol. 88, No. 4, pp. 641–658. Available at: https://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/jensen08k.pdf

32. Tinbergen J. Shaping the World Economy. New York, Twentieth Century Fund, 1962. Available at: https://archive.org/details/shapingworldecon0000tinb

33. Wani S. H. Gravity Model Approach: An Empirical Application with Implications for BRICS Countries. The Indian Economic Journal, 2024, Vol. 72, No. 2, pp. 340–352. DOI: 10.1177/00194662221137267

34. Yotov Y. V., Piermartini R., Monteiro J.-A., Larch M. An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model. Geneva, WTO, 2016. Available at: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/gds2016d3_en.pdf.


Review

For citations:


Andreeva E.L., Ilyasov P.V. Assessment of Involvement of Countries of Greater Eurasian Partnership into Foreign Trade Interaction. International Trade and Trade Policy. 2026;12(2):58-77. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2026-2-58-77

Views: 33

JATS XML


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2410-7395 (Print)
ISSN 2414-4649 (Online)