mttpМеждународная торговля и торговая политикаInternational Trade and Trade Policy2410-73952414-4649ФГБОУ ВО "Российский экономический университет им. Г.В. Плеханова"10.21686/2410-7395-2023-3-20-40mttp-641Research ArticleМИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯWORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONSМОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ СТРУКТУРНЫХ СДВИГОВ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ И ВЛИЯНИЯ ЭКСПОРТА ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ НА ВНУТРЕННИЕ РЫНКИ США И КНРMODELING THE RELATIONSHIP OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN INDUSTRY AND THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS ON THE DOMESTIC MARKETS OF THE UNITED STATES AND CHINAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8787-4274МинатВ. Н.MinatV. N.

Валерий Николаевич Минат, кандидат географических наук,  доцент, доцент кафедры  экономики и менеджмента 

300044, Рязань, ул. Костычева, 1

Valery N. Minat, PhD, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department  of Economics and management 

1 Kostycheva Street, Ryazan, 300044

minat.valera@yandex.ruРязанский государственный агротехнологический университет имени П. А. КостычеваРоссияRyazan State Agrotechnological University named after P. A. KostychevRussian Federation202307012024942040Copyright © Минат В.Н., 20242024Минат В.Н.Minat V.N.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://mttp.rea.ru/jour/article/view/641

Актуальность выявления взаимосвязи структурных сдвигов промышленности и влияния экспорта высокотехнологичной продукции на ценовые и стоимостные параметры внутренних рынков стран-лидеров современной мировой экономики вызвана необходимостью комплексного изучения неопределенности и нарушения равновесия под воздействием структурно-циклических факторов рыночного развития. Разработка актуальных моделей, способствующих выявлению и эмпирическому обоснованию искомой взаимосвязи с позиций частичного равновесия на внешних и внутренних рынках США и КНР (Китая), имеет как теоретическое, так и прикладное значение в условиях реиндустриального поворота, базирующегося на конвергентных технологиях. Целью моделирования является установление и обоснование возможной взаимосвязи структурных сдвигов промышленности и влияния экспорта высокотехнологичной продукции на внутренние рынки США и КНР. На основе предшествующего опыта разработана комплексная эконометрическая модель, включающая расчетно-математический и регрессионно-функциональный инструментарий, позволяющий анализировать зависимые и факторные переменные в рамках двух последовательных циклических волн текущего столетия. Установлены и обоснованы взаимосвязи структурных сдвигов промышленности и влияния экспорта высокотехнологичной продукции на внутренние рынки стран – лидеров мирового промышленно-технологического соперничества – США и КНР. Выявленные в результате моделирования зависимости не только эмпирически, но и концептуально увязывают конкуренцию производителей высокотехнологичной продукции каждой из стран, попеременно соотносимых в качестве страны-экспортера и страны – глобального экспортера соответствующих товарных групп. Полученные результаты отвечают действующей тенденции в мировой экономике, более последовательно раскрывая искомые взаимосвязи, чем при анализе конкуренции конкретных компаний, действующих на олигополистических рынках сравниваемых стран-экспортеров.

The relevance of identifying the relationship between structural shifts in industry and the impact of exports of high-tech products on the price and cost parameters of the domestic markets of the leading countries of the modern world economy is caused by the need for a comprehensive study of uncertainty and imbalance under the influence of structural-cyclical factors of market development. The development of relevant models that contribute to the identification and empirical justification of the desired relationship from the standpoint of partial equilibrium in the external and internal markets of the United States and China has both theoretical and applied significance in the context of the reindustrial turn based on convergent technologies. The purpose of modeling is to establish and substantiate the possible relationship between structural shifts in the industry and the impact of exports of high-tech products on the domestic markets of the United States and China. On the basis of previous experience, a complex econometric model has been developed, including computational-mathematical and regression-functional tools that allow analyzing dependent and factor variables within two successive cyclical waves of the current century. The interrelations of structural shifts in industry and the impact of exports of high-tech products on the domestic markets of the leading countries of the world industrial and technological rivalry – the USA and China – have been identified and substantiated. The modeling performed allows not only to identify comparative advantages at the country, national-economic level in terms of the impact of convergent technologies on the structure of production and exports in various cyclical variations, but also reflects the utility function for consumers of high-tech products in the domestic market of the United States and China. The dependences revealed as a result of modeling not only empirically, but also conceptually link the competition between manufacturers of high-tech products of each of the countries, alternately correlated as an exporting country and a global exporting country of the corresponding commodity groups. This creates a unique opportunity to show the multi-level relationship in the system "structural shifts - exports - domestic market" by comparing the dependent and factor variables of econometric and regression calculations. The results obtained correspond to the current practice in the world economy, revealing the desired relationships more consistently than when analyzing the competition of specific companies operating in the oligopolistic markets of the compared exporting countries.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.