mttpМеждународная торговля и торговая политикаInternational Trade and Trade Policy2410-73952414-4649ФГБОУ ВО "Российский экономический университет им. Г.В. Плеханова"10.21686/2410-7395-2020-3-97-112mttp-391Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ТОРГОВЛЯОСНОВНЫЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ОЦЕНКЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ НЕТАРИФНЫХ МЕР НА МЕЖДУНАРОДНУЮ ТОРГОВЛЮTHE MAIN APPROACHES TO ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NON-TARIFF MEASURES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADEВолковР. Г.VolkovR. G.

Роман Геннадиевич Волков, ведущий эксперт Центра макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования, научный сотрудник

117418, г. Москва, Нахимовский проспект, д. 47

Roman G. Volkov, Senior Expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting of Research Associate

47 Nakhimovsy prospect, Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation

rvolkov@forecast.ruИнститут народнохозяйственного прогнозирования Российской академии наукРоссияThe Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2020290920200397112Copyright © Волков Р.Г., 20202020Волков Р.Г.Volkov R.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://mttp.rea.ru/jour/article/view/391

Статья посвящена анализу основных существующих подходов к оценке влияния мер государственного нетарифного регулирования на показатели внешней торговли. В статье перечисляются факторы, обусловливающие сложность решения данной задачи: разнообразие нетарифных мер, их применение не только на границе, но и внутри страны, неопределенность воздействия и отсутствие количественного выражения таких мер. Указывается, что эффекты нетарифных мер обычно определяются оценкой изменения объемов и условий торговли с помощью различных методов. Так, метод частотного анализа определяет уровень охвата нетарифными мерами импортируемых товаров как долю в объеме импорта или в общем количестве товарных позиций. Методом оценки разницы цен определяется изменение цен на внутреннем рынке под воздействием нетарифных мер. Метод опросных оценок позволяет получить различные оценки эффектов данных мер от компаний и предприятий, метод индексного анализа – рассчитать индексные оценки влияния нетарифных мер, в том числе на основе опросных данных. Методом эконометрических оценок оцениваются количественные эффекты нетарифных мер, включая изменение объемов экспорта или импорта. В статье рассматривается каждый из перечисленных методов с выделением характерных преимуществ и недостатков.

The article deals with analysis of the main approaches to assessing non-tariff measures of government foreign trade regulation on foreign trade indicators. The article lists the factors which make it difficult to solve the problem: diversity of non-tariff measures, their using not only at the border but also within the country, effect uncertainty and frequent lack of quantification of such measures. It is also noted that non-tariff measures effects are usually determined by assessing changes in volumes and terms of trade with various methods. The frequency analysis method defines the coverage of imported goods by non-tariff measures as a share in the volume of imports or in the number of commodity items. The price gap assessment method defines the changes in the in-country prices under the influence of non-tariff measures. Survey method allows to obtain various estimates of these measures effects from business, index analysis method – to calculate index assessments of non-tariff measures effects, including based on survey data. Econometric method estimates the qualitative effects of non-tariff measures, including changes in the volume of exports or imports. The article considers each of these methods with the highlighting of their advantages and disadvantages.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.